In parts 1 and 2 of this series we have looked at the affect cognitive bias have on our view of the past and the present. In this third and final part we'll be looking at how such biases effect our view of the future.
Physicist Niels Bohr (a contemporary and collaborator of Einstein) said “prediction is difficult, especially about the future”. If humans are biased in our views of the past and present, our views of the future are even more fraught. We are caught between the Scylla of ho...
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Management
Cognitive biases and leading change – Part 2
Last week we described the sunk cost and the ostrich biases and how they distorted the way change decision makers view the past. Other biases affect our view of the present. These present-based biases can be further split into problem definition, and solution finding.
Problems in problem definition
“If I had only one hour to save the world, I would spend fifty-five minutes defining the problem, and only five minutes finding the solution.” (Einstein)
The way problems are stated is called th...
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Cognitive biases and leading change – Part 1
Humans make big thinking mistakes in predictable ways. Collectively these errors are called ‘cognitive biases’. Business leaders sometimes make billion dollar decisions, and neither their businesses nor wider society can afford ‘hardware glitches’ on that scale. This three-part series on cognitive biases and leadership starts with how cognitive biases systematically distort our view of the past and how that affects today’s decisions.
In 2001, I was called into British Airways because they...
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Shifting the status quo
In Project Management circles there is an increasing awareness that some projects aren't just about producing deliverables, they are about delivering "change". Project's in today's business world are often changing the way business is done and the failure to recognize how hard it can be to change work habits, or organizational structures, is one of the contributing factors seen in a number of the projects in the "Catalogue of Catastrophe".
Many of the better Project Management courses in the m...
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Don’t just jump, leap
Lesson learned: Maximizing project throughput.
Category: Resource management / Portfolio management.
The following post is a "Lesson Learned" that comes from the analysis of the failed projects documented in the "Catalogue of Catastrophe" or from the experiences the editorial team have had working with clients around the world. The post is published here to spark discussion and help individuals and organizations think about what it takes to improve project success rates.
Given the rap...
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What is Project Success?
"As Project Manager, juggling all of the balls is important, but keeping your eye on the right ball is the key to delivering truly successful projects" - RG
While understanding the causes of project failure is important, without a common definition of "success", there is no clear basis for differentiating a success from a failure. Clearly none of the projects in the Catalogue of Catastrophe can be regarded as great successes (some resulted in bankruptcies, many were cancelled before completio...
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The Bean Counter’s Blind Spot
Lesson learned: Be careful what you measure and how you measure it.
Category: Project objectives / Decision making.
The following post is a “Lesson Learned” that comes from the analysis of the failed projects documented in the “Catalogue of Catastrophe” or from the experiences the editorial team have had working with clients around the world. The post is published here to spark discussion and help individuals and organizations think about what it takes to improve project success rates.
I can...
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And now – A Message TO our Sponsors
The Sponsorship role is perhaps the most important in a project. The Sponsor owns the project and has a direct responsibility for ensuring that the desired business outcomes are achieved. In discussing project failures with people, one of the common complaints I hear is that the Sponsorship role is either non-existent or weak in their organizations. Ownership of projects is often unclear and no one really champions the project within the organization. Project Managers are left holding the baby a...
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Cheese and Onion – Frameworks for Analyzing Project Failure
When it comes to improving success rates, the commercial aviation sector has been one of the most successful. In 1930 taking a commercial flight was risky business. When you board a flight today, the chances of an accident taking your life is about 1 in 30 million. Through rigorous accident investigations and a willingness to challenge every facet of the problem, the industry has continually improved its safety record.
Sadly, success rates for the projects in today's businesses are far worse ...
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In the news – Project Management on the ascent
Project Management is a field that has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Although the origins of Project Management lie in the field of construction, the value of Project Management is now being recognized by organizations throughout the economy.
Recent data attained from a major Canada wide job posting website demonstrates that growth and shows how the ability to lead successful projects is becoming the must have skill organizations are now looking for. The following data was attai...
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